Monday, May 7, 2007

Cap Situation

Here is a quick breakdown of the Raptors Cap Situation going into this summer. I'll send another email out about how I think the Raptors can attack the off season given their current situation and the summer of 2008.

Actually, the Raptors were right at the salary limit of $53 million for 2007. Of course, in the NBA, this is the lower spending limit as the luxury tax doesn't kick in until you exceed $65 million, so you can look at that as the true cap limit (note - you cannot sign unrestricted free agents (from different teams) to monster deals if you're at the $55 million limit.

Alonzo was "making" 4.5 million this season and Alvin Williams was making 6.5. Combined they will offset the Chris Bosh extension which will come in around $12 million per. TJ is getting 8 million per, but other salaries are falling off (ie Mo Pete at 4.5, D Mart at 1.75 mil, Robert Whaley at 700K). Basically, after everything is said and done the Raptors are looking at a 2007-2008 salary structure of $51 million. Which puts them about $2-3 million under the projected cap of $54-55 million. Obviously, this amount of cash isn't going to buy you a high impact guy.

However, they do have a $5.8 million mid level exception, which they can give to one or several guys (once you spend you mid level you don't get it back until that contract is finished or ou trade the contract away).

Long story short, don't expect the Raptors to make any major noise this summer because they are still fairly capped out. A sign and trade with Mo Pete is a possibility (more on this later), and not having a 1st rd pick also saves a ton of cash (more discussion to follow). On the brightside, this year's unrestricted free agent class is very very iffy. Carter and Billups are the headliners, and Lewis is the next tier, but after him, the proven talent drops off a cliff.

Note - assuming the Raptors can't make any huge deals this summer, they are looking at a payroll of $39 million (plus another $1.5-2 million for their 1st rd pick, if they pick a ncaa guy), with a projected cap of about $56-57 million at the end of 2008. Giving them a projected $16 million of cap room to spend in the prime of Bosh's career, with TJ, Andrea, and Jose reaching their primes as well. 2008 is the last season of Garbo and AP's initial contracts, so their prices should drop as they would be entering their mid 30's. Basically, the Raptors should be able to add the final piece to a championship contender in a year. Look for a stop gap this summer (unless they can somehow pull off my secret plan)....

Sunday, April 22, 2007

Thoughts from Game 1

I know everyone is pretty hysterical because of the loss yesterday, and believe me I am super disappointed with yesterday's game, but everything that I've read, it seems like no one talking about the correct issues.

Sam had a good gameplan in place, and I think the Raps did enough of defense to win it, but at the end of the day, their offense let them down. They weren't able to force NJ into the double team scramble, and the Raptors offense ground to a halt because there was no where to swing the ball. Bosh needs to force the double down, and Bragnani needs to fucking hit a 3.

Other observations yesterday:

I definitely didn't think that Bosh did enough to force NJ into the rotations necessary for the Raps to get their normal 3's. They kept a second defender close to him as a soft double, but he didn't force them to double down hard, in order to make the Nets start to scramble. That is the biggest adjustment that they have to make on Tuesday to the offense. I don't think its broken, just something Bosh has to do to adjust his game. If Bosh starts to make a strong move to the hoop, NJ will have to start to double hard, and AP (and maybe Joey) should start to get hot.

I think Jose and Ford did as well as you could have asked for. NJ was forcing TJ to be a scorer, they played him to pass, so its good to see him adjust his game, and light them up, should make it harder for NJ to decide what to do in Game 2. Calderon they played to attack the rim, and he was able to rack up a bunch of assists in the 2nd half, which was good to see. Ford and Calderon definitely present a problem for NJ because Marcus Williams is terrible. The moment he got in to the game, the Raptors made huge runs, so I think Kidd is going to have to start playing even more minutes, which should pay off by Game 3 (hopefully). Kidd is a terrible shooter, so I kind of expect him to have similar type offensive game 12 and 10 is my prediction for game 2. The Raps CANNOT have Kidd grab 10 boards, that more than anything else killed them yesterday. Carter is probably going to go off in Game 2, but RJ will be limited if that happens, which the Raptors will benefit from.

They were able to turn RJ off in the second half, so Sam was ale to make an adequate adjustment on him in the half court. I think he only scored about 9 points in the 2nd half, which is way better than the 21 he put up in the first. Nachebar played a pretty big part, but he didn't perform outside my expectations. I thought going in to the series, he was going to be a huge part of their gameplan, and he proved me right.

The X Factor is gonna be Bragnani. He had a TERRIBLE game, probably his worst game since the first few of this season. If he gets his normal 13-16 pts, the Raps win yesterday.

As bad as the Raptors played yesterday, the Nets were just as bad. I think this series is going to come down to the Raptors improving their offensive execution because I felt that they played defense well enough to win defensively (they aren't going to morph into the Spurs just because its the playoffs), but their offense really let them down.

The transition defense was atrocious yesterday, and something needs to be corrected.

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Fordicus' Raps - Nets Preview

When Ford sent this email out, I almost passed out reading cause it got me so pumped...

Raps - Nets Preview

It was a scary thing to realize last week that this series was a
possibility. I was resigned to the idea of a relatively lax first round
against a depleted Wizards squad, but now the Raps have the kind of match-up
that could cause them to expend alot of energy and emotion. There is no
doubt the AC will be going bananas in our first return to the playoffs in
half a decade... and all the hatred, all the angst of failed seasons past
will be focused on one man: Vince Carter. Let's hope the rest of their bums
don't get overlooked in the process.

I hope Rasho knocks that bitch on the floor everytime he tries to get in the
paint. Then we will see the evidence for what his nickname should have
been... 'half man, half 20-foot fade away'. Still, he's won a few games
single-handedly before with a wince on his face and without a lick of effort
on defence.

ESPN has once again disappointed with three out of four predicting a Jersey
win. I'm not daunted by this in the least, but for the hell of it, let's go
through the match-up by position to see who has the edge here:

PG - TJ Ford & Calderon vs. J. Kidd & Marcus Williams: Ford and Calderon
are the best PG tandem in the league. No arguments allowed. Kidd is a
future HOF inductee and will have his moments of brilliance as he always
does, but this year his scoring has been down and he is visibly a step
slower starting the break after his knee surgeries. Marcus Williams is a
fat piece of shit who shoots 28% from 3. Calderon and Ford should wear down
Kidd and feast on the chubby laptop thief.

Edge: Raptors

SG - Anthony Parker, Juan Dixon, Mo Pete vs. Carter, Eddie House, Antoine
Wright: Parker has been the best surprise acquisition since Keon Clark was
electrifying crowds on a 20 win team a few years back. He will receive the
brunt of the minutes guarding VC, and will be counted on to hit some big
3's. Maybe you can only hope to contain the injury-prone pussy, but he is
still the best player in this group by a large margin. I look for Mo to get
some minutes in the early going if his knee is sound, but eventually get
benched for the younger, more intense Juan Dixon. Eddie house and Antoine
Wright both suck balls.

Edge: Jersey, but only slightly. The 3 or 4 guys Tdot can put on Carter
narrows the gap.

SF - Joey Graham, Andrea Bargnani vs. Richard Jefferson, Bostjan Nachbar:
This is going to sound crazy, but Nachbar is good. He's shown me he can
take it to the rack and hit the open 3 with consistency and he actually
scares me more than the post-injury Jefferson. Graham needs to keep up his
strong play and Bargs needs to get himself in shape and get his legs under
him quickly. If he can pose a threat from long range and utilize his
passing ability off the dribble, the Raps will be in good shape.

Edge: Tie

PF - Bosh, The Hump vs. Mikki Moore, Josh Boone?: I don't even really know
who the fours and fives are for NJ. A collection of scrap heap guys and
projects. Does anyone think they will be able to handle Bosh for a second,
or even keep Hump off the offensive glass. I say no way. This position is
a massacre and the Raps need to exploit it.

Edge: RAPTORS (caps lock for screaming)

C - Rasho vs. Jason Collins: I think we all know the big Lithuanian keeps
bodies in the trunk of his car despite his icy, stoic gaze. All he needs to
do is stand there and play good post position on both ends, hit the odd
elbow jumper and lay-up every would be dunk. Jason Collins is a stiff.
Always has been, never will change. These teams will likely go small and
also use a combo of their 4's at center, but the Nets just can't test up
front.

Edge: Raptors again.

Conclusion: While superstars win championships, and the Nets have an edge
of 1.6 superstars (Carter = .8, Kidd and Jefferson about .4 each) to the
Raptors 1 (Bosh), this Toronto team is built with the depth and role
awareness to easily dispose of this heavily flawed nuisance.

Prediction: Raptors in 5 and the ACC will have the roof blown off.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

The Joey Question

The on going performance of Joey Graham may be pivotal to the success of the Raptors come playoff time. Being at the Bulls game has really given me a new perspective on Joey. To some extent I have to blame Sam a bit for holding Joey back (ie. mistake = bench). But with extended mins Joey is really starting to get into a grove. Will he regress when Bragnani is back? I say no. At some point players either turn for the better or they regress and go play in Europe. Joey was either going to turn into the player we are seeing right now, or he was going to tail off. The home stretch and the playoffs will be extremely important to gauge if Joey has turned the corner or not (remember Tayshaun did NOTHING for 2 years, before finally getting IT in the 2nd half of the Piston 2003 championship team). I don't think he is looking for his shot too much. He is taking the best open shot, and its available because teams are overplaying the Raptors for the corner 3. I think if Joey can score consistently at the elbow, it creates even more options.

Friday, March 30, 2007

Time for Everyone to Recognize

Alright, so I need to go on a little diatribe about the Raptors today because even keeps dismissing them, its like the American media just doesn't want to talk about Toronto, ignorant bastards.

39 wins and counting, they are the 3rd best team in the East, and they have so many legit wins and they have played the 2 best teams in the NBA tough (although San Antonio owns them). I don't know why everyone (media, etc) keeps saying the Raps won't get past the 1st rd, its just American bias. If the Knicks had the Raptors' record right now, ESPN would be running non stop stories about the greatness of Isiah's coaching. At the beginning of the year, people were saying that the Raptors can't win, when they go to .500 everyone said that they did it on the backs of bad teams, when they built their lead on NJ everyone said that they would come back to the pack. None of that has come to pass.

People in basketball recognize, I heard Reggie Miller on TNT last night saying that Sam Mitchell has to be the coach of the year. The media won't cause they love to hate on the Raptors, but when the second season comes, people are going to have to acknowledge that the Raptors are a force in the Eastern Conference. I am tired of everyone telling me why the Raptors can't do well. I think they are going to win at least one playoff series this spring, even if they are playing the sainted Heat (I don't drink the Kool-Aid, and you shouldn't either).

11 games left. I say they go about 8-3 in this stretch with wins against Charlotte (home), Orlando (away), Philly (away), Chicago (home), Minnesota (away), Detroit (home), New York (home), Philly (home).

By the end of this run, people will have to say the Raps are legit....

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Thoughts on the First Post Garbo Game

Went to the Heat game last night, and here are just a couple of observations from me:

1) I am not sure where the "new" old Shaq went, but all I saw was the "old" old Shaq. In fact, since the Heat have failed to score 70 pts in the 4 games prior to their demolishing of the Hawks, I would say that "new" old Shaq was just a 9 game aberration. Look, I am not saying he is a sub par center, I am just saying that Rasho was able to guard him one on one for most of the time, and he was completely unable to force his will on the game. Its more like he is a very run of the mill center now, no more dominant that an Eric Dampier or Big Z. Its a little shocking to see the decline in his game because you can still see flashes of dominant Shaq (in the 3rd quarter he was able to spin on Hump, split the Juan Dixon double team, and throw down a monster dunk, of course re read the 2 defenders he abused, maybe I shouldn't be so impressed). Anyway, if people actually think the Heat can win without D Wade, they are insane.

2) If D Wade doesn't make it back in time for the playoffs, or if he is less than 80% (ie he can't take his wild and fearless drives to the hoop, and a well placed/well timed hack by Rasho may knock him out of a game), I would LOVE the Raptors matching up against the Heat. Watching the Heat is a total disaster, White Chocolate has one of the ugliest 3's I have seen, and he is a STILL a poor decision maker. Zo looks worn down, I think he had to play too many minutes earlier this season. Eddie Jones is a joke (Dixon was one on one with him the whole game, and he did nothing. Big 2's like Jones should just rise up and own Juan). Antoine Walker, wow I don't know what to say about this guy, the decline from his employee #8 days is shocking, at this point, I would say that he is as much of a detriment to the Heat as he is a contributor, way too slow, surprisingly indecisive, a bad fit as the 6th man for this team. Udonis Haslem, I like quite a few things he did on the court, but when he wasn't hustling, he is worthless, Bosh owned him for stretches, very lackadaisical effort last night. I don't know if the media is just in love with the Heat because of their referee assisted run last season, but there is really no way I can see the Heat team advancing past the 1st round without D Wade back. All things being equal, the Heat (without Wade) is definitely not as good as Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Toronto. They are on par with Washington, if both were healthy, it be very interesting to see how they would matchup.

3) What is up with Sam Mitchell's man crush with Juan Dixon?!?! I am not sure if asking Juan to guard 2 guards is going to work out for the Raptors. Now, given the way the other East contenders are built, this experiment could work out. One thing I do know, Mo is done, stick a fork in him because he's got nothing left. He had so many wide open looks from downtown, and he bricked them all. Joey had a decent game on the boards with 4 last night, he should've had 2 more pts (Hump stole a put back from him). 4 and 4 is decent, but I really don't see him getting into the starting lineup with that kind of performance.

4) I love AP, he is definitely stepping up his game with Garbo down. 20 pts, on extremely efficient shooting, helping out everywhere on D. That little curl jumper is money, I would love to see the Raps one that a few more times per game cause AP has a sweet stroke.

5) The Raps didn't miss Garbo last night with everyone stepping up their games (except Mo), but down the line I think they will miss him for a game here and there. If Brags can come back strong in the playoffs, the Raps should be able to have some success in the playoffs.

I Just Don't Want to Talk About It....

But you all know that I have to. Garbo's injury was ugly, I am just glad that it wasn't his knee, and hopefully, he will be back healthy in time for next season.

Here were my initial thoughts after almost barfing when I saw the injury:

There are only so many solutions available right now. I think Joey Graham has to be the answer at SF right now. Mo Pete was dragging ass again, and played like shit. He hasn't shown anything except for last Friday. Its time for Joey to shine, he has to get it done now, he has to get his head out of his ass and play the hard nosed defense and get some big boards that Garbo was giving them. Mo Pete needs to get a fucking clue and start nailing some 3's as well. I think the Raptors can get through this injury, but it is really going to take a huge effort by Joey and Mo to survive.


Richie's Thoughts, the day after:


Ouch! Ive read all the updates and for once I must say that I am happy i was not in Toronto watching last nights game.

So now we must analyse some of the likely repercussions:

1 MoPete starts in Garbo's place. This is the most likely and in spite of MoPete's up and down play this year he has still proven to be better than Joey on the vast majority of nights. He has experience, plays decent defence, is one of the teams leaders, and can stretch the D when hitting his 3's.

2. Joey starts in Garbo's place. Also a likely solution to the problem provided that Graham actually starts to show some consistent effort. He never has before though so why now? Is he ready to break out? I doubt it.

3. Start Dixon at SG and move Parker over to SF. I wouldn't do this, but if Mitchell has as much of a man crush on Dixon as it seems he does, it certainly is not out of the realm of possibility.

4. Start Luke Jackson in Garbo's place. Haha. Just kidding.

5. Bargnani makes a superhuman comeback while displaying faster powers of recovery than even Wolverine. He then decides to quit pretending to be a centre and become an exclusively 3 point chucking 7 footer a la Sam Perkins.

6. Go big and let the Hump play the three. This may in fact solve the Raptors rebounding woes - while simultaneously creating about 15 brand new problems. It may also necessitate that they begin to play My hump, my hump, my humps, his lovely lady lumps, more often in the ACC.

7. Explore the latest in experimental surgery and actually try to transplant Garbajosa's brain into Joey Graham's body. By creating Josep Garbagraham the raps could have the best of both worlds. This is probably a better option than number 4.

I personally, love idea 7, if only cloning and brain transplantation technology could be ready by the end of April!