An Early Look at the Bulls from My Prospective

I'll be attending the April 8 Raptors game against the Bulls. I'll update my breakdown then since I haven't seen the Bulls live this season, and I definitely would like to see what they look like up close in an extremely hostile environment.

Here's my breakdown of the potential Bulls - Raptors series:

*PER is Player Efficiency Rating, which is a John Hollinger stat that is suppose to let you make relative comparisons.

PG: Hinrich is is actually 6'3 which gives him great size at the position (Nash, Billups, Parker, Kidd are all between 6'2 or 6'4). He is a little streaky in game, but overall he has a pretty good FG percentage at 44.9%, which ranks him in the top 10 amongst point guards (Nash is the PG leader at .536). He has good range (he is about 41% from behind the arc), but he only takes about 4 treys a game. Hinrich is an excellent distributor averaging 6.0 assists a game. He averages about 2 turnovers a game, so he definitely protects possessions with a TO to assist ratio of 3 to 1. Helps out on the boards with about 3.5 rebounds per game, and is adequate defensively getting about 1.3 steals per game. He isn't a game changer (he averages about 16 pts per game), but if he is going good he has the ability to let the Bulls pull away from opponents. He is a better road player than home player, averaging 4 pts more on the road than at home (18 ppg on the road vs 14 ppg at home). Overall, he has a PER* of 16.72, which makes him the 14th most efficient PG in the NBA. TJ matches up well with Hinrich, as Kirk is not a post up PG, and will not impose too physical of a presence on TJ. Given the make up of the Raptors, Hinrich will probably be focused on slowing TJ rather than look for his own offense.

SG: Ben Gordon is a second tier SG, but he can get very hot in clutch situations. Has below average size at 6'3, and he is a volume shooter (averages 16 attempts per game) that is very prone to hot and cold streaks (he just went 2 of 12 from the floor against the Clips). He is a threat from deep, with a 3 pt % around .400, while he takes about 4 treys a game. He averages about 3.6 assists per game, so he looks definitely looks for his own shot first. Does an average job on the boards for his position with 3.2 boards a game. Careless with the ball as he averages about 3 turnovers a game, but around the average for 2 guards. Can get posted up defensively due to his size, and is not a very good defensive player, averaging less than 1 steal a game. He isn't really affected by playing at home or on the road, as his averages are fairly consistent based on his splits, but he does average 2 pts more at home. Overall, he has a PER of 18.36, which ranks him as the 16th best SG in the league (D Wade is the leader at 30.05, Kobe is 2nd at 26.21). He has been a traditional Raptor killer, and the job of stopping him may fall on Mo Pete or Juan Dixon if Gordon continues to come off the bench for the Bulls (39 starts out of 70 games played).

SF: Luol Deng is a rising star at SF. Devastating mid range game as witnessed by his .521 FG% (as a comparison LeBron is .479 and Melo is .478). Should take more shots considering his impact, but plays within the offense averaging 14.7 attempts per game (LeBron takes about 21 attempts per game). Is not a threat from beyond the arc shooting a terrible 25% from deep, but he does not take many treys as he is averaging less than 1 attempt per games (apparently he understands his weakness). A great rebounder for his position averaging about 7 rebounds per game (compared with Josh Howard's 7 a game). Very good defensively averaging 1.2 steals per game. Takes very good care of the ball with only 1.8 TO a game, he isn't a non stop slasher which limits his TO situations. As consistent on the road as he is at home with only a difference of 0.6 pts on the split. Overall, he has a PER of 18.87, which ranks him as the 8th best SF in the NBA, amazing since he doesn't not get the same volume as some of the guys ahead of him (LeBron, Melo, Lewis). Luol Deng is the single biggest matchup problem for the Raptors, but if the Bulls don't start Gordon, Parker will probably do an adequate job of slowing him down defensively. He will hurt the Raptors, the biggest need is to limit the pain.

PF: PJ Brown, Tyrus Thomas, and Andres Nocioni share starting duties at this position. PJ and Tyrus both average less than 6 pts per game, and PJ is the better rebounder at 5 boards a game. Neither are factors for the Bulls (PJ is a historic Raptor killer, Tyrus may or may not be illiterate, and probably can't find Canada on a map). Nocioni has not played since Feb 23 due to plantar fasciitis. When he is available he is by far the best PF the Bulls have. He is a little undersized at 6'7, but has posted great numbers so far this season 15 ppg and 6 rpg. Is not a great defender based on his 0.5 blocks per game, but he is will make opposition work for their points. Has a great FG% at .468 while taking 12 shots per game. He is not on pace for 500 mins this season, so a PER is unavailable for him. Regardless, of who plays PF for the Bulls, their sole responsibility will be to slow down Chris Bosh. Given Tyrus Thomas' athleticism, he will probably get a greater share of this duty, while Nocioni will probably see his minutes limited. I would be extremely surprised if we saw PJ Brown play more than 10 - 15 mins per game.

C: Ben Wallace is still a difference maker on the boards and on defense. Very obvious slippage from his Defensive Player of the Year days. Has won a championship, so he knows what it takes to be successful in the post season. Averages about 6 ppg on put backs and baskets inside 6 ft, he has no real offensive game. A total offensive liability in late game situations as he only shoots around 40% from the free throw line. A top ten rebounder (# 8) in the NBA with 10.5 rebounds per game, and very effective on the offensive glass with 4 boards a game, which will generate at least 4-6 second chance points per game. Still a top 10 shot blocker (# 9) averaging 2.1 blocks a game, and helps out the overall team defense with 1.5 steals a game. Doesn't rank in the top 50 in PER for his position due to his shockingly inefficient offense (only takes about 5 shots per game, hitting 44% of the time). Rasho or Garbo (if Bargs is playing in late game situations) will be able to do an efficient job in slowing him down. He should have a very minimal impact on the outcome of this series.

My first impression of this series is that it will come down to which team is better at dictating the tempo of the game, and who can slow down the other teams main offensive threat, Bosh for the Raps and Deng for the Bulls. If the Raptors are extremely efficient in their offense, limiting their turnovers, maximizing their assists, and hitting from beyond on the arc, the Bulls will be hard pressed to keep up with them offensively. The Bulls have to force the Raptors into as many half court - zone situations as possible, as they do not match up will one on one with the Raptors, and they definitely cannot run their break as efficiently as the Raptors can. If Gordon gets very hot in this series, then the Raptors could be in serious trouble as Anthony Parker has to spend most of his time on Deng. However, since the Bulls backcourt is so small due to Gordon's lack of stature, I think we could see more TJ/Calderon pairings in 4th quarter situations to ensure the best possible lineup is on the floor. I haven't seen Dixon try to guard Gordon, so Juan's play could be a huge factor in the Raptors game plan for the Bulls.

This should be a very entertaining first round matchup, but right now Chicago does have home court advantage which is huge. If the Raptors can steal a game in Chicago, I think they will be well positioned to advance to the second round. Getting to 100 ppg is a huge key for the Raptors as scoring at such a high rate would mean that they are able to run their break offense effectively, which means the Bulls are playing at an offensive place that they are uncomfortable with, and will probably not be able to sustain over a 7 game series. Stopping Deng will be the key to any possible Raptors success.