Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Oden or Durant

Okay, this is a total hypothetical, but for a minute, let's pretend that David Stern didn't screw the Raptors over for the millionth time, and the NBA age limit didn't kick in until this season. Meaning that Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, as well as Andrea, were available to be picked by the Raps. Knowing what we know now about all 3 players, who would you have chosen? Here's my take:

I think Bragnani is great, and he does a lot of things that Oden can't like bomb 3's over opposing 5's in high screen-roll situations, and he has a certain height that Durant doesn't (6'9 compared with 7'0), so its a hard call to say that the Raptors would have been definitively better with one of the other guys. We know what the Raptors are with Bragnani, and we have had a few glimpses of what they might become (last Wednesday's game against the Knicks being the best example), but Andrea is 21 years old, which makes him 3 years older than both Oden and Durant. I think in terms of updside, its hard to argue against a couple of guys like Oden or Durant. Bragnani is still developing, and he is definitely a legit NBA player with All-Star potential, but is he the same kind of franchise altering picks that Oden and Durant are? I don't know the answer to that, but seeing how the Raptors have played this season, I think having Bragnani definitely puts the Raptors in a position to contend for a Finals if they can a couple more pieces.

Greg Oden is probably the best American center to come into the NBA since Tim Duncan (it can be argued that TD was a 4 for a lot of his career, but that's just semantics. After David Robinson retired, its pretty clear that TD has been the Spurs 5. Look at their last championship run, featuring Big Shot Rob at the 4, so who was the pivot? TD of course.) With Oden, the Raptors wouldn't be able to run the kind of offense that they do now (screen - roll, find 3 pt shooters), without having to change their roster significantly (no more Garbo, Mo Pete, Joey Graham). But, Oden and Bosh could work the high - low block with some pretty devastating results assuming we still had TJ Ford. In this situation, TJ could come off a high screen, and 1) turn the corner and get a layup, 2) penetrate and look for either a cutting Bosh or Oden with single coverage on them, or 3) kick it out to the perimeter for a wide open 3 because the defense has to sag so much to protect the rim against Bosh, Oden, and TJ. Of course this offense would be unstoppable if the Raps had another shooter on the perimeter to go with AP. I think the Raptors would have been a much better defensive team having 2 big time shot blockers in Bosh and Oden, and the rebounding that these 2 could provide would mean that the Raptors could probably run their break at an even faster pace. I think Oden probably would have made the Raptors championship contenders for the next 15 years.

Kevin Durant is probably the best young offensive player I have ever seen. I am not old enough to remember when Jordan entered the league, so I won't say that Durant is the all time greatest. At the same time, I can't recall too many Jordan clips where he started raining 27 feet 3's on people, so there are probably a few things that Durant does better now at 18 than Jordan did. I think that Durant would been able to make an instant impact with the Raptors because his game meshes so well with the Raptors philosophy of taking a lot of treys off TJ penetration, and be an outlet for a lot of Bosh high-screen and rolls kick outs. Ironically, I think the Raptors would probably be a similar team to what they are now since Durant has a similar jump shot based game to Bragnani (neither player is what I would call a force on the block). The dimension that Durant has that Bragnani doesn't is his ability to create off the dribble, a facet of the game that Durant is superior in. In late shot clock situations, it would be conceivable that the Raptors could throw the ball to Durant to let him try and create something. Right now, the Raptors definitely lack that aspect to their offense. At the same time, Durant looks like he may have spent a couple of summers in Ethiopia, I mean that kid is rail thin (I used to think that about LeBron when I saw him as a junior in HS, but HGH is a powerful drug). Durant's lack of overall strength and an NBA ready body would probably have meant that he would have to come off the bench, and his defense would be very limited.

Having covered what I think the impact on the Raptors offense would have been, who would I have chosen if all 3 were available? Probably Greg Oden. Having a guy like that just gives you so many options, ups the tempo of the break because of the increased transition opportunity, and the Raptors address their complete inability to rebound at a high rate. Oden and Bosh would have been like having the more athletic version of Ewing and Malone. That would've been awesome, but since David Stern decided to screw over Canada once again, its all a pipe dream. However, Bragnani was still a great choice even if his appendix did exploded today.

(The magic number is 10, Bragnani will be back in a month, I mean Ben Rothlisberger played a week after his surgery, and Bragnani doesn't have 300 lbs monster trying to break his stitches open...)

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